By Ken Boehlke

Colts at Texans

Spread – IND -3
Moneyline –  IND -155 HOU +135
Total – 46

Side: With the Titans and Jaguars both a complete mess, the Colts and Texans understand that their two head-to-head matchups may well determine the winner of the AFC South. The Texans had many chances to take control of their game with the Cowboys but never were able to do it. They certainly have to be happy to see the old Arian Foster and they can rely on another solid game against the average Colts rush defense. Pressure on Andrew Luck will be the difference in the game. Just like Romo, Luck is creative inside the pocket, but Luck also possesses the ability to run for big yards. The Texans front has to not only get to him but do it with a collapsing pocket. If they can, the Colts offense can be slowed, if not they may throw all over Houston. Pick: Colts -3

Total: Both teams rank in the top half of the league in points allowed, but each have been bolstered by games against bad teams like Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. The Texans offense is a lot more dangerous when each of their two major cogs are working. Foster clearly is back while the Texans are still waiting for that massive game out of Andre Johnson. As Foster opens up the Colts front, Johnson should be able to get down the field a little more than he has thus far. Assuming Fitzpatrick can get it to him, Houston can be dangerous. Pick: Over 46

Broncos at Jets

Spread – DEN -8.5
Moneyline –  DEN -430 NYJ +350
Total – 47.5

Side: The Jets threw up a stinker against the Chargers and even swapped Michael Vick in for Geno Smith later in the game. Denver on the other hand displayed quite the showing of offense against an excellent Arizona D and then benefited from the Cardinals having to use their third string QB later in the game. It looks like a complete mismatch and may well turn out that way on Sunday, but the Jets have a habit of outperforming public perception just when things look the worst. There’s a reason Rex Ryan is still employed in New York and it’s because he finds ways to win games like these. We won’t go as far to say the Jets will win outright, but they’ll keep it close. Pick: Jets +8.5

Total: If the Jets do indeed keep this game close it will be because they slow down the Broncos passing attack by getting to Peyton Manning. For years the game plan has been the same when taking on Manning, make him move his feet. The Jets have the front four to do it and Ryan will likely dial up some blitzes to assist in pressuring the quarterback. Plus, Montee Ball may be out for an extended period of time so the Broncos will lean on Ronnie Hillman. If New York can’t slow down Hillman, the 1-4 record will be the least of their problems moving forward. Pick: Under 47.5

Steelers at Browns

Spread – CLE -1.5
Moneyline –  PIT +105 CLE -125
Total – 47

Side: After completing one of the best comebacks in NFL history the Browns will look to build on it as they play hosts to the struggling Steelers. Pittsburgh had all sorts of troubles with Jacksonville and lost to Tampa Bay at home two weeks ago. Their defense is in shambles, mainly due to injury, and they will have to find out how to stop the suddenly hot Brian Hoyer. Ben Tate may also cause problems for this Steeler defense. He racked up more than 100 yards in his first game back from injury and should be able to do it again this week. The Pittsburgh offense hasn’t been too terribly impressive either in these past two games. Playing against two of the worst defenses in the NFL the Steelers managed just 17 and 24 points respectively. Cleveland’s D isn’t great, but it’s better than both the Jags and Bucs. Pick: Browns -1.5

Total: Pittsburgh has always been an under team, but this year their roster screams overs. They are 3-2 over the total, but it’s the Browns 4-0 over record that has this one looking likely to reach the number. Cleveland cannot seem to put two halves together defensively so expecting the Steelers to at least have a few good quarters is likely. It’s the Browns offense that will determine whether the total gets there or not. They have a habit of getting in their own way, much like they did early in Week 5, but when they get going it can be dangerous. Pittsburgh is just too banged up to expect them to stop anyone though. Pick: Over 47

Jaguars at Titans

Spread – TEN -6
Moneyline –  JAX OFF TEN OFF
Total – 44

Side: Bad and worse. The Jaguars offense was a complete wreck last week while the Titans appeared to be putting together their best performance of the season before they fell flat on their faces and blew a 25-point lead. The fact of the matter in this game is that the Titans are simply the superior team as they’ve shown at times they can look good while aside from the first half against Philadelphia the Jaguars have looked hopeless. Finally, Justin Hunter broke out for the Titans and he could be a difference maker as the season progresses. The Jags will have a tough time covering the Titans, and Jacksonville will continue to be their own worse nightmare on offense. Pick: Titans -6

Total: For the first time all season the Jaguar defense that many thought to be one of the more improved units in the NFL showed up. They made life very difficult on both Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers run game. But like we all know in the NFL, what you see one week is not always what you see the following week. As mentioned above, the Titans WR corps will be too much for the Jags to handle, but it’s Jacksonville’s offense that may be the difference. Blake Bortles should continue to get better each week and the more they realize they don’t have a run game the more they’ll allow him to throw. One added bonus, Jacksonville likes to allow opposing defenses to score on them, major plus for over bettors. Pick: Over 44

Bears at Falcons

Spread – ATL -3
Moneyline –  CHI +155 ATL -175
Total – 53.5

Side: Both the Bears and Falcons got out to sizable leads and then their horrific defenses let them slip away. These two teams are truly mirror images of each other in almost every way. Each has an excellent quarterback, two great WR’s, and an awful defense. It’s fitting that the spread matches the exact total a team is given as home field advantage. This game is a toss-up in every sense of the matter. Neither team has to feel great about how the season has started off yet both are identifying this as a game in which they could possibly get it turned around. When it’s a toss-up like this, try to put a point value on the home field. If it’s greater than three take the home team, if it’s not, go with the dog. Pick: Falcons -3

Total: The 53.5 number is an awfully tall task for any NFL game. It’s obvious that both quarterbacks should not only have time to throw but also will have multiple mismatches in the secondary. There has to be a slight concern for Brandon Marshall’s health as he simply hasn’t been the same since the early season injury. Also, Martellus Bennett, who was a star the first few weeks, has disappeared. The Falcons on the other hand seem to be getting stronger offensively. Julio Jones looks great, Harry Douglas could be back, and their line issues look to be straightened out. Pick: Over 53.5

Packers at Dolphins

Spread – GB -3.5
Moneyline –  GB -180 MIA +160
Total – 49.5

Side:The Dolphins probably needed the week off after their trip across the pond to beat the crap out of the Raiders. However, they are coming back to the states for a date with a Packer team that may have just figured it out. The bye week extra time off is not as significant as normal because the Packers are coming off a Thursday game and the Dolphins had an abnormal travel schedule. Green Bay will have no problem getting the ball to their WR’s and Eddie Lacy may be back to the guy we remember from last season. This is a tough draw for the Dolphins, and the number doesn’t indicate it as much as it should. Pick: Packers -3.5

Total: It’s the Packers defense that has been the surprise through five games in Green Bay. Aside from the opener, the Packers have yet to allow more than 24 and are coming into this game off three consecutive games allowing fewer than 20. Miami’s offense is not nearly as good as it looked in London and will certainly take a step back against Green Bay. One problem the Packers have is their inability to slow down the run, but the Dolphins and a hobbled Knowshon Moreno are not good enough to exploit that weakness. Pick: Over 49.5

Lions at Vikings

Spread – DET -2
Moneyline –  DET -125 MIN +105
Total – 44

Side: It’s hard to determine which of these two teams suffered the more demoralizing loss in Week 5. The Vikings were clobbered on Thursday night while the Lions blew a lead at home against the Buffalo Bills. Since Adrian Peterson’s “departure” the Vikings offense simply hasn’t been the same. Teddy Bridgewater gave them a shot in the arm but his injured ankle kept him out of the last game. As teams have a chance to watch Bridgewater on tape they will not be fooled by the deceptive quickness and running ability. Detroit’s front seven will make life difficult on the rookie and DeAndre Levy, arguably the best player in football this season, will continue to terrorize opposing offenses. Pick Lions -2

Total: This number has a much better shot of going over the total if all of the questionable players are able to play, namely, Calvin Johnson and Teddy Bridgewater. If both start, the Vikings will have no answer for Megatron and will be forced to unleash Teddy after they fall behind. Defensive touchdowns have to be taken into consideration in this one as well. Any time there is a rookie QB going up against an active front there’s an increased probability of turnovers. However, Cordarrelle Patterson represents a tough cover for the Lions D, he could have a big game. Pick: Over 44

Panthers at Bengals

Spread – CIN -7
Moneyline –  CAR +270 CIN -330
Total – 44

Side: It was a tale of two teams for the Panthers teams against Chicago while unfortunately for the Bengals only their bad team showed up in New England. The Bengals being touchdown favorites indicates the oddsmakers are predicting a major bounce back in Cincinnati. However, the short week and the fact that the Bengals defense was in shambles means Carolina should have a solid chance to win this game. The Panthers defense came to life late against Chicago and we all know how devastating they can be when they get going. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Bengals dominate, but correcting a miserable defensive effort on a short week is a tall task for a first year defensive coordinator in Cincinnati. Pick: Panthers +7

Total: This game should absolutely be a defensive struggle. There’s almost no way the Bengals play as poorly as they did in New England at home against Carolina. The Panthers, on the other hand, can be expected to keep up their strong defensive effort playing against a far inferior offense. The Bengals do not have a bad offensive team, but as the Patriots proved, if you can take A.J. Green out of the picture they don’t have anywhere else to turn. Carolina is a bit light on the edges, and certainly don’t have a Revis, but they will be able to double Green and force the other receivers to beat them. Pick: Under 44

Patriots at Bills

Spread – NE -3
Moneyline –  NE -160 BUF +140
Total – 45

Side: Remember when the sky was falling in New England. Bill Belichick’s time as a dominant head coach was over, Tom Brady should retire because “he sucks” and the offensive line was holier than the Vatican. Then Monday Night Football happened and all is well again. Now they get a Bills team that may be the most underrated team in the NFL. The Bills are 3-2, have won two road games, and played reasonably well in each of their losses despite their terrible quarterback play. The sky may have found it’s place back in the sky for the time being in New England, but it’s not yet time to overreact. The Pats will not have the same passion in this game as the MNF one, and they still have problems all over the field. After all, the Patriots have played well twice and poorly three times, the Bills are the opposite. Pick: Bills +3

Total: Assuming each team regresses to the mean a little after last week, this one can be expected to be won by the better defense. The Kyle Orton led Bills weren’t much more prolific than the E.J. Manuel led Buffalo. They will continue to have a tough time putting points on the board, even at home. The Buffalo defense has been stupendous this season and are the only reason Buffalo is where they are at this point. Expect pressure on Brady, lockdowns on the WR’s and a lot of wood laying on the TE’s over the middle. This number was greatly impacted by the Patriots Monday Night offensive outburst, the Patriots offense is not good, and the Bills defense is excellent. Pick: Under 45

Ravens at Buccaneers

Spread – BAL -3
Moneyline –  BAL -185 TB +165
Total – 43

Side: Tampa Bay had a golden opportunity to go from 0-3 and buried alive had they not blown an 11-point lead in New Orleans. Instead, they are effectively a dead man walking and are a perfect fade opportunity from here on out. The Bucs are horrible at home having lost more than 65% of their home games the last three years. The Ravens, on the other hand, were red hot before going into a very difficult game with Indianapolis and playing well. Baltimore should have no problems moving the ball against the awful Tampa defense, and if they can get any pressure on Mike Glennon people will remember why Josh McCown beat him out to start the season.  Pick: Ravens -3

Total: Over, over, OVER! What about the Buccaneers defense makes anyone, anywhere believe they can play a game in the low 20’s? Tampa Bay has played three straight games well over the total and this game has a lower number than any of the previous three. Baltimore has been good defensively, and kept the Steelers and Panthers to 10 or fewer points. But both of those games were played at home, in their two road games they allowed at least 20. Tampa has shown they can move the ball, they just throw in miserable drives from time-to-time like the one where they started at their own 20 and managed three penalties, a botched snap, and eventually a sack leading to a safety. OVER!!! Pick: Over 43 

Chargers at Raiders

Spread – SD -7
Moneyline –  SD -320 OAK +260
Total – 43

Side: Maybe the new head coach will make the Raiders better. Yeah, I don’t think so either. Add in the fact that they are taking on the AFC’s most impressive team and this one has blowout written all over it. However, a touchdown is a large number to cover on the road, especially against an embarrassed football team off the bye. Oakland players have had to answer questions about their poor play as well as the new coach, they are going to be chomping at the bit to get back out there. Talent wise, the Raiders aren’t terrible, it’s just that when they get on the field they can’t put it all together. It’s probably crazy to think, but the Raiders might get off to a hot start in this one. Consider a first half bet as well. Pick: Raiders +7

Total: This is one of the tougher totals of the week. The number indicates a more defensive-minded game, but the Chargers offense has been so efficient that it’s hard to bet them any way but over the total. They have scored 30 in three of their five games while the Raiders have allowed at least 30 in half of their four. Therefore, if the Chargers do indeed get there, it’ll take a major blowout for this one to stay under. Also, the Chargers have alternated between over and under each week this season. Last game, the game went way under. Pick Over 43

Cowboys at Seahawks

Spread – SEA -8
Moneyline –  DAL +330 SEA -410
Total – 47.5

Side: The Seahawks are so good at home that the standard three point spread differential is probably somewhere closer to five or six now. That’s certainly the case in this one as the Cowboys are playing some of the best football in the NFC and yet are still more than a touchdown underdogs in Seattle. But the fact of the matter is that the Seahwaks are just too good to pick against right now, specifically at home. Russell Wilson continues to make plays that defy the laws of sight, and even when they are racking up penalties they still dismantle teams. This one might finally be the game where the Cowboys defense cracks, it might even get ugly. Pick: Seahawks -8

Total: The Cowboys defense has been so much better than projected by just about anyone who watched them play a single snap in preseason, but as mentioned above this could be the one that changes that. Thus far, the Cowboys have been able to control the center of the field and limited big plays. However, the game against St. Louis is a good indicator of what might happen in Seattle. The Rams were able to move the ball by using short easy passes that stretched the center of the Cowboys defense. Seattle is as good as anybody at doing the exact same thing. Expect Wilson to pick out easy open receivers and complete a massive percentage of his passes. Pick: Over 47.5

Redskins at Cardinals

Spread – ARI -3.5
Moneyline –  WAS OFF ARI OFF
Total – OFF

Side: Carson Palmer’s availability will be the ultimate determining factor in the outcome of this football game. With Drew Stanton having a concussion, the Cardinals would be left with just Logan Thomas if Palmer is not able to go. After the performance the Redskins put forth on Monday Night they are clearly a better team than the one we saw on Thursday two weeks ago. Arizona’s defense was a bit exposed against Denver, but then again, whose defense isn’t when tasked with stopping Peyton Manning in Denver. Should be a nice day for Larry Fitzgerald as possession receivers have fared well against Washington. Pick: Cardinals -3.5


Giants at Eagles

Spread –PHI -2.5
Moneyline –  NYG +125 PHI -145
Total – 50.5

Side: One of these weeks we will actually get a feel for what is the real makeup of this Eagles team. They’ve been a first half team, a second half team, an offensive juggernaut, a turnover machine, and so on. This game will give us a much better description moving forward. The Giants are an average football team that does not flash brilliance on either side of the ball. They’ve done well taking care of the football and are winning games they are supposed to and losing ones in which they are outmatched. Based on last season this would look to be a clear mismatch favoring Philly, but again, we just aren’t sure what we are going to get out of the Eagles. The Giants are probably the better side as they’ve been more consistent and shouldn’t hand the Eagles TD’s on defense like the last few Philadelphia opponents. Pick: Giants -2.5

Total: During the entire preseason and then even the first two weeks of the year many, including myself, believed this Giants offense was garbage. However, the switch appears to be cemented in the on position for Eli Manning and the Giants offense is rolling. They’ve put up 30 points in three straight games and are ready to face an Eagle defense that is not immune to allowing points. Meanwhile, the Eagles should be able to get back on track offensively against this New York defense that ranks 25th in the league against the pass. Both defenses are pedestrian and both offenses should be able to score. Pick: Over 50.5

49ers at Rams

Spread – SF -3.5
Moneyline –  SF -180 STL +160
Total – 43.5

Side: So you are trying to tell me that Austin Davis is pretty good? Well, apparently that is the case after his third consecutive game with a QB Rating of 98 or better. The Rams offense has been able to move the ball, albeit against pretty poor defenses. Things will change this weekend though as they gear up to face the stellar 49ers. San Francisco has looked excellent in each of their last two games and appear to be back to their 2013 form. Unless Zac Stacey comes alive at home on Monday Night, the Rams will struggle to move the ball consistently. San Fran should be able to do just enough on offense to get the win and move to 4-2. Pick: 49ers -3.5

Total: Absolutely should be a battle of the defenses, however the Rams previously vaunted D has turned into one that is well below average. They’ve allowed exactly 34 points in three of their four games and can’t seem to get off the field on third down. The 49ers will have success running the ball and should be able to put Colin Kaepernick in enough good situations that the pass rush will not affect him. Both defenses should be better, and it’s possible this is the game they both show up big on national television, but the points per game numbers suggest a game in the mid 50’s rather than low 40’s. Pick: Over 43.5

Listen to Over and Under with Ken Boehlke and Jason Pothier on CBS Sports Radio 1140 every Sunday morning from 8 to 10. Follow the show on Twitter @OAU1140 and on Facebook.